14.1 Scenario Planning: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 23:56, 11 June 2026

With the future being uncertain, scenario planning offers a systematic way to imagine and plan for all possible contingencies. This helps one avoid putting all the eggs in one basket when making an important decision.

The Lesson in Context

We often face uncertainty when making future decisions. The scenario planning technique taught in this lesson provides a systematic way to consider a wider range of future possibilities, even ones that may be somewhat unlikely. This helps the planner plan for contingencies and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket.

Earlier Lessons

3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning

Future predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. Thus, one should be open to the possibility that the most likely future scenario does not happen. Scenario planning acknowledges this and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple possible futures.

8.1 Orders of Understanding

When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often also need to think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what might change. In scenario planning, we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be.
We usually want to put higher order factors on our scenario planning axes, to make sure we are considering the most important variables for possible futures.

Takeaways

After this lesson, students should

Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
1. Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
2. Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
3. Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.

Scenario Planning

A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.

Drivers

The drivers are the two axes used in a scenario planning plot. They should have the following features:

Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other).
Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in).
Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.

After this lesson, students should

Attitudes
1. Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
Concept Acquisition
1. Scenario Planning: A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.
Concept Application
1. Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
2. Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
  1. Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
  2. Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
  3. Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.

Additional Content

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-{{Navbox}}
+{{Cover|14.1 Scenario Planning}}
-{{Todo|Fill out the learning goals and definitions.}}
+With the future being uncertain, scenario planning offers a systematic way to imagine and plan for all possible contingencies. This helps one avoid putting all the eggs in one basket when making an important decision.
-{{Todo|Add links in learning goals.}}
-{{Todo|Write the "context" for how this lesson connects with others.}}
-{{Todo|Edit previous lesson to see if there's any setup for this lesson that needs to be in the "During Class" or "After Class" section of the last.}}
-{{Todo|Fill out the lesson content.}}
-{{Todo|Fill out or delete anything with "[...]" remaining.}}
-== Learning Goals ==
+== The Lesson in Context ==
-[Link to PlayPosit]
+<!-- Always begin section with a description of this lesson in relation to the course as a whole. -->
+We often face uncertainty when making future decisions. The scenario planning technique taught in this lesson provides a systematic way to consider a wider range of future possibilities, even ones that may be somewhat unlikely. This helps the planner plan for contingencies and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket.
-[Link to instructional video]
+<!-- Expandable section relating this lesson to other lessons. -->
+{{Expand|Relation to Other Lessons|
+'''Earlier Lessons'''
+{{ContextLesson|3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning}}
+{{ContextRelation|Future predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. Thus, one should be open to the possibility that the most likely future scenario does not happen. Scenario planning acknowledges this and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple possible futures.}}
+{{ContextLesson|8.1 Orders of Understanding}}
+{{ContextRelation|When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often also need to think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what might change. In scenario planning, we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be.}}
+{{ContextRelation|We usually want to put higher order factors on our scenario planning axes, to make sure we are considering the most important variables for possible futures.}}
+}}
+== Takeaways ==
+<tabber>
-More details: [link to topic on SSS website]
+|-|Learning Goals=
 After this lesson, students should
-# [What they should understand, feel, learn, etc.]
+<!-- Learning goals are written as a numbered list. -->
+# Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
+# Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
+# Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
+## Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
+## Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
+## Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.
-=== Definitions ===
+|-|Definitions=
-* '''Term'''
+<!-- Definitions must be written with the Definition and Subdefinition templates. The first Definition should have the "first=yes" flag at the end. -->
-*: Explanation.
+{{Definition|Scenario Planning|A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.|first=yes}}
+{{Definition|Drivers|The drivers are the two axes used in a scenario planning plot. They should have the following features:
+:* Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other).
+:* Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in).
+:* Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.}}
+<br />
-=== Examples ===
+|-|Expanded Learning Goals=
-* [item 1]
+After this lesson, students should
+# Attitudes
-=== Common Misconceptions ===
+## Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
+# Concept Acquisition
-* ''Mistaken quote''
+## '''Scenario Planning:''' A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.
-*: Explanation.
+# Concept Application
+## Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
-== Context ==
+## Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
+### Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
-[Explanation of how the current topic into the larger context of the course by explaining how the previous topic(s) relate to the current topic and leaving cliffhangers for future topics where relevant throughout the lesson]
+### Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
+### Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.
-=== Before ===
-: '''[[X.X Lesson Name]]'''
-:: Explanation.
-:* Itemized explanation.
-=== After ===
-: '''[[X.X Lesson Name]]'''
-:: Explanation.
-:* Itemized explanation.
-== Recommended Outline ==
-=== Before Class ===
-* [Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
-* Prepare a seating chart.
-* Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
-* (Optional) Prepare a presentation.
-=== During Class ===
-* (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
-* ([#] min) [Description of some module from [[#Lesson Content]]]
-* (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.
-=== After Class ===
-* [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
-* Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.
-== Lesson Content ==
-=== Clicker Question ===
-# Question {{Answer|Correct answer.|small=right}}
-## First option
-## Second option
-## Third option
-## Fourth option
-=== Activity 1: Name ===
-[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]
+</tabber>
-{{Caution|Common misconceptions and any useful tricks, tips, guidelines, or other background}}
-==== Instructions ====
-==== Discussion Questions ====
-# Question 1
-## Subquestion a {{Caution|Possible misconception that may need to be corrected and clarified.|small=right}}
-##: {{Answer|Intended answer to the above question.}}
-## Subquestion b
-== Collect Questions for Plenary ==
-(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].
+{{#restricted:{{Private:14.1 Scenario Planning}}}}
+{{NavCard|chapter=Lesson plans|text=All lesson plans|prev=13.2 Deliberative Polling|next=14.2 Wrap Up}}
 [[Category:Lesson plans]]
-=== Changemaker ===
-# {{Changemaker|In Steve Blank's HBR article on lean startups, he discusses how a new methodology has taken foot in the world of startups. Rather than planning out a long term strategy from an office room and trying to stick to it, the lean startup method is centered on the firm being agile and flexible to pivot to new opportunities. In what ways is this method similar to scenario planning? In what ways is this method different from the scenario planning framework proposed by Peter Schwartz in class? Is there a way to adapt the Peter Schwartz framework and integrate it with lean startups?}}
-#{{Changemaker|The scenario planning model proposed by Peter Schwartz in class is forward looking in the sense that it takes two dimensions and attempts to plot how outcomes might change based on the degree to which these dimensions are true. Simultaneously, one can look at how actions in each quadrant might affect future outcomes. The Theory of Change model from the Changemaker course takes a backwards approach. What is this other approach, how is it different from the scenario planning model, and in what type of situations should you use one over the other?
-}}