14.1 Scenario Planning

Learning Goals

[Link to PlayPosit]

[Link to instructional video]

More details: [link to topic on SSS website]

After this lesson, students should

1. [What they should understand, feel, learn, etc.]

Definitions

• Term

  Explanation.

Examples

• [item 1]

Common Misconceptions

• Mistaken quote

  Explanation.

Context

[Explanation of how the current topic into the larger context of the course by explaining how the previous topic(s) relate to the current topic and leaving cliffhangers for future topics where relevant throughout the lesson]

Before

8.1 Orders of Understanding

• When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what has the capability for change. In scenario planning we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be. :* We usually want to make sure we put first order factors on our scenario planning axes.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
• Prepare a seating chart.
• Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
• (Optional) Prepare a presentation.

During Class

• (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
• ([#] min) [Description of some module from #Lesson Content]
• (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.

After Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
• Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.

Lesson Content

Clicker Question

1. Question
   1. First option
   2. Second option
   3. Third option
   4. Fourth option

Activity 1: Name

[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]

Discussion Questions

1. Question 1
   1. Subquestion a

   2. Subquestion b

Collect Questions for Plenary

(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].

Changemaker

1. In Steve Blank's HBR article on lean startups, he discusses how a new methodology has taken foot in the world of startups. Rather than planning out a long term strategy from an office room and trying to stick to it, the lean startup method is centered on the firm being agile and flexible to pivot to new opportunities. In what ways is this method similar to scenario planning? In what ways is this method different from the scenario planning framework proposed by Peter Schwartz in class? Is there a way to adapt the Peter Schwartz framework and integrate it with lean startups?
2. The scenario planning model proposed by Peter Schwartz in class is forward looking in the sense that it takes two dimensions and attempts to plot how outcomes might change based on the degree to which these dimensions are true. Simultaneously, one can look at how actions in each quadrant might affect future outcomes. The Theory of Change model from the Changemaker course takes a backwards approach. What is this other approach, how is it different from the scenario planning model, and in what type of situations should you use one over the other?