14.1 Scenario Planning

Learning Goals

[Link to PlayPosit]

[Link to instructional video]

More details: [link to topic on SSS website]

After this lesson, students should

1. [What they should understand, feel, learn, etc.]

Definitions

• Term

  Explanation.

Examples

• [item 1]

Common Misconceptions

• Mistaken quote

  Explanation.

Context

[Explanation of how the current topic into the larger context of the course by explaining how the previous topic(s) relate to the current topic and leaving cliffhangers for future topics where relevant throughout the lesson]

Before

8.1 Orders of Understanding

• When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what has the capability for change. In scenario planning we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be. :* We usually want to make sure we put first order factors on our scenario planning axes.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
• Prepare a seating chart.
• Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
• (Optional) Prepare a presentation.

During Class

• (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
• ([#] min) [Description of some module from #Lesson Content]
• (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.

After Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
• Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.

Lesson Content

Scenario Planning Activity

On large pieces of construction paper, the students will plan scenarios. This is done by drawing two axes to split the paper into four quadrants. The students will pick some "future of ``x``" prompt and explore four possible scenarios of what said ``x`` could look like. To do this, they come up with two drivers that they put on the axes. The drivers should satisfy the following criteria:

• Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other)
• Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in)
• Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.

The scenarios involve coming up with creative headlines and pictures for the imagined futures.

Materials

• At least six sheets of large poster/construction paper
• Six sets of colored markers

Possible Futures

These are some sample "future of ``x``" prompts that the students can choose from.

• The future of transportation
• The future of dating
• The future of the space industry
• The future of the COVID-19 pandemic
• The future of work
• The future of supermarkets
• The future of human-computer interaction

Instructions

1. (5 min) Review scenario planning with the students and explain the activity
2. (3 min) Give the students a chance to pick their "future of ``x``" prompt. They will work in groups of 5.
3. (7 min) Let the students come up with two drivers of change for the topic that have the aforementioned features.
4. (25 min) The students come up with the four scenarios in the four quadrants. They should write down a description of each scenario in its spot. They should also come up with hypothetical newspaper headlines that would come up in that scenario.
5. (30 min) Have the students go through all the discussion questions.
6. (10 min) The groups of students pair up and present their posters to each other.

Discussion Questions

1. How would you know which scenario you're in?
2. Who are the relevant stakeholders in your scenarios?
3. What group decision making structures would you set up in order to respond to these possible scenarios? Write your responses in each of the quadrants.
4. Given the uncertainty of which scenario the world ends up in, what research questions do you want answered ahead of time in order to prepare for the possible outcomes?
5. Let's be specific. Pick one research question and try to design a study that addresses it. Incorporate as many course concepts as are relevant.

Changemaker

1. In Steve Blank's HBR article on lean startups, he discusses how a new methodology has taken foot in the world of startups. Rather than planning out a long term strategy from an office room and trying to stick to it, the lean startup method is centered on the firm being agile and flexible to pivot to new opportunities. In what ways is this method similar to scenario planning? In what ways is this method different from the scenario planning framework proposed by Peter Schwartz in class? Is there a way to adapt the Peter Schwartz framework and integrate it with lean startups?
2. The scenario planning model proposed by Peter Schwartz in class is forward looking in the sense that it takes two dimensions and attempts to plot how outcomes might change based on the degree to which these dimensions are true. Simultaneously, one can look at how actions in each quadrant might affect future outcomes. The Theory of Change model from the Changemaker course takes a backwards approach. What is this other approach, how is it different from the scenario planning model, and in what type of situations should you use one over the other?