12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking

Learning Goals

[Link to PlayPosit]

More details

After this lesson, students should

1. Not take for granted that consensus offers the best conclusions.
2. Take seriously (but not as absolute!) the consensus of a group which has reasoned about a question in a careful, appropriate way.
3. Take seriously (but not as absolute!) the average of a large group's independent estimates of a number, under appropriate conditions.

Definitions

• Wisdom of Crowds: Sometimes groups make better judgments than individuals. This happens when
  • Judgments are genuinely independent, preventing herd thinking.
  • Members of the group do not share the same biases.
  • There are enough people in the group to balance out random biases or fluctuations (analogous to the need for an adequate sample size).
  • Works especially well when estimating a quantity, where errors may be large but are not systematic.
• Herd Thinking: Sometimes groups make worse judgments than individuals. This happens when
  • Judgments of individuals are influenced by the judgments of others, leading to groupthink and sometimes polarization.
  • Members of the group share biases, which can be exaggerated by discussion and cannot be decreased by averaging judgments.

Examples

• [item 1]

Common Misconceptions

• Mistaken quote

  Explanation.

Context

[Explanation of how the current topic into the larger context of the course by explaining how the previous topic(s) relate to the current topic and leaving cliffhangers for future topics where relevant throughout the lesson]

Before

X.X Lesson Name

Explanation.

• Itemized explanation.

After

X.X Lesson Name

Explanation.

• Itemized explanation.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
• Prepare a seating chart.
• Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
• (Optional) Prepare a presentation.

During Class

• (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
• ([#] min) [Description of some module from #Lesson Content]
• (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.

After Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
• Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.

Lesson Content

Clicker Question

1. Question
   1. First option
   2. Second option
   3. Third option
   4. Fourth option

Activity 1: Name

[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]

Discussion Questions

1. Question 1
   1. Subquestion a

   2. Subquestion b

Collect Questions for Plenary

(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].