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Revision as of 14:38, 24 July 2023
The Purpose and Limitations of Science
1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant
What we can Measure
2.1 Senses and Instrumentation
2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty
Statements of Uncertainty
3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning
3.2 Calibration of Credence Levels
Dealing with Noise
4.1 Signal and Noise
4.2 Finding Patterns in Random Noise
Trade-offs nad Progress
5.1 False Positives and Negatives
5.2 Scientific Optimism
Establishing Causation
6.1 Correlation and Causation
6.2 Hill's Criteria
Types and Consequences of Causation
7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy
7.2 Emergent Phenomena
Describing and Simplifying Reality
8.1 Orders of Understanding
8.2 Fermi Problems
Heuristics and Biases
9.1 Heuristics
9.2 Biases
Catching and Countering Biases
10.1 Confirmation Bias
10.2 Blinding
Science Gone Wrong
11.1 Pathological Science
11.2 When Is Science Suspect
Group Evaluations
12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking
12.2 Grill the Guest
There is no lecture video for 12.2 Grill the Guest due to how much it varies by guest.
Better Group Decision Making
13.1 Denver Bullet Study
13.2 Deliberative Polling
The Outlook and Potential of Science
14.1 Scenario Planning
14.2 Wrap Up