9.2 Biases

Learning Goals

[Link to PlayPosit]

[Link to instructional video]

More details: [link to topic on SSS website]

After this lesson, students should

1. Be wary of underestimating the influence of context or circumstance on human behavior (their own and others'). E.g. Circumstance excuses my bad behavior more than it excuses the bad behavior of others.
2. Be aware of the difficulty of resisting pressures to conform, in oneself and others. E.g. Other people conform, but I can easily resist conforming whenever I wish.
3. Be able to sort situations by the difficulty of resisting conformity, according to:
   1. Number of people conforming
   2. Identification with the group
   3. Confidence that the group is mistaken
   4. Presence or absence of a dissenter
4. Be aware of the difficulty of resisting pressures to obey, in oneself and others. E.g. It is easy for people to disobey when they think orders are unjust or wrong.
5. Be able to sort situations by the difficulty of resisting obedience, according to:
   1. Perceived authority of the "authority" giving instructions
   2. Proximity of the authority
   3. Proximity of the "victim"
   4. Presence of another disobeying
   5. Availability or salience of alternative, disobedient behaviors

NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR REMAINING TOPICS

1. [Predict that people will engage in temporal discounting when making decisions between something now vs. something later. E.g. People make decisions based on how good they think the outcomes will be, not based on when those outcomes will happen.
2. Be wary of their own temptation to excessive temporal discounting when making decisions, choosing immediate rewards over longer term benefits. E.g. If I choose to get something less good that I can get sooner, it's always because I need it sooner.
3. Be aware and wary of status quo bias. E.g. The way things are is the best way for things to be. Keeping things the way they are is safer.
4. Understand not to assume the status quo is necessarily stable, even if we don't try to change it. E.g. It is possible to keep things just the way they are, and that is the most stable and predictable approach.

Definitions

• Fundamental attribution error

  The tendency to underestimate the importance of context and circumstance and overestimate the importance of individual differences in explaining and predicting behaviors, especially behaviors of other people.

• Conformity

  The tendency to behave similarly to others in proximity or in one's in-group, sometimes despite good reasons to behave differently from others.

• Obedience / Authority Bias

  Behavior following the instructions or commands of others perceived as having some authority.

• Temporal discounting

  Evidence shows that present rewards are weighted more heavily than future ones. Once rewards are very distant in time, they cease to be valuable. (see Hyperbolic discounting theory for a more nuanced theory)

Examples

• FAE: If someone cuts us off while driving, our first thought might be “What a jerk!” instead of considering the possibility that the driver is rushing someone to the airport. On the flip side, when we cut someone off in traffic, we tend to convince ourselves that we had to do so.  We focus on situational factors, like being late to a meeting, and ignore what our behavior might say about our own character. (source)
• Conformity Bias: Studies show that people are more likely to act in a prosocial manner, such as contributing to charity or conserving water, if they see or hear that others are doing it too. (source) However, it also works in the other direction "cheating is contagious."
• Obedience Bias A physician ordered ear drops to be administered to the right ear of a patient suffering from pain and infection. Instead of writing out completely “Right ear” on the prescription, the doctor abbreviated it, “place in R ear.” The duty nurse misread “R ear” to be “Rear.” Upon receiving the prescription, she promptly put the required number of ear drops into the patient’s anus. (source) <- This story came up on many sites and is supposedly from this book but has not been verified.
• Temporal Discounting: When asked if they'll take one cookie now or 3 cookies in 4 days people are more likely to take the cookie now. (note: this is generally true for short time scales and small rewards but gets more nuanced otherwise: people will take $10,000 in 2 months over $100 right now. )

Common Misconceptions

• Mistaken quote

  Explanation.

Context

[Explanation of how the current topic into the larger context of the course by explaining how the previous topic(s) relate to the current topic and leaving cliffhangers for future topics where relevant throughout the lesson]

Before

7.1 Orders of Understanding

Orders of Understanding is about how each event arises from multiple influences, some more important than others. Human behavior, for instance, is affected by both individual differences and by circumstance or context, and we often overestimate the former and underestimate the latter (FAE).

8.1 Heuristics and Biases I

The first lesson on H&B is on "cold" biases around numbers and frequencies. The second lesson (this one) is on "hot" biases, more emotion and value-laden thinking. Both involve heuristics, strategies for making quick judgments that can be useful in some contexts but can also go awry.

After

10.1 Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is a broader form of bias in which people tend to look for and believe evidence or arguments supporting what they already believe or expect, and to neglect or dismiss evidence and arguments against what they believe or expect. It can exacerbate other biases, including status quo bias, temporal discounting, and/or the fundamental attribution error.

12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking

Herd thinking is what happens when people in a group conform too much to each other's ideas, neglecting problems with their ideas and convincing each other to become more confident in their shared ideas than is warranted. This tendency is undergirded by the pressure to conform to the group and also the pressure to go along with anyone in the group perceived as an authority (obedience).

13.1 Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning involves considering four different possible future scenarios. It is one strategy that may reduce status quo bias and temporal discounting by making more salient a variety of possible futures, and how they may differ from the present in both desirable and undesirable ways.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

• Prepare a seating chart.
• Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
• Prepare Google Docs and Forms (and possibly slides) as detailed in the activities below.
• (Optional) Prepare a presentation.

During Class

• (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
• ([#] min) [Description of some module from #Lesson Content]
• (1 min) Inform the students of the assigned articles 9.1 Pathological Science.
• (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.

After Class

• [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
• Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.
• Remind students to read the assigned articles for 9.1 Pathological Science.

Lesson Content

Conformity

This activity introduces students to the unexpected power of the pressure to conform with a group, giving them experience of a version of the classic Asch study and inviting them to discuss its implications and ramifications.

Instructions

1. (5 min) Each group gets a set of five worksheets numbered 1-5 with four sets of lines of varying lengths, each labeled A-D. Four worksheets instruct students to select the correct answer for the first two sets of lines, then the same wrong answer for each of the last two sets. Each time they go around one by one in order from worksheet #1 to #5, so that the fifth student always goes last. The fifth worksheet instructs the student to select the shortest lines. But the other students in their group will have all selected the second-shortest lines in the third and fourth cases.
2. (3 min) Reveal: Students are allowed to admit the deception to their victim, whoever drew the #5 worksheet. The fifth student says how they felt, and why they chose the answers they did, whether conforming or not.
3. (4 min) Watch Asch experiment video.

Discussion Questions

1. (8 min) Discuss in small groups: Why do you think the pressure to conform is so strong? Can you think of a time you conformed reluctantly? Why did you conform? What would the consequences have been of not conforming? Can you think of a time you conformed without really thinking about it? Why did you conform then? Can you think of a time you didn't conform? Why didn't you? Was it difficult? How did others react? What lingering questions do you have for plenary?
2. (5 min) Discuss results of small group discussion as a whole group. What surprised you? Are there sometimes good reasons to conform? What makes it hard to resist conforming? What enables people to resist conformity?

Obedience

This activity introduces students to the unexpected power of the pressure to obey authority, showing them the classic Milgram study and inviting them to discuss its implications and ramifications.

Instructions

1. (6 min) Watch this video up to 5:27, and stop.
2. (5 min) Students fill out a form asking them to say if they've heard of this study before, and to estimate: what percentage of people, ordinary residents of New Haven, they think will (a.) push the shock button at all; (b.) keep pushing it after the victim starts asking them to stop, if the experimenter tells them to continue, and (c.) how many will keep pushing it after the victim has stopped responding.
3. (5 min) Warn the students that the rest of the video may be disturbing, but explain it's important for us to understand the power of authority and the difficulty of resisting it in certain situations. Watch the rest of the video.

Discussion Questions

Discuss in small groups:

1. Why did so many people continue to push the button, even after the "learner" cried out in pain and begged them to stop?
2. What situational factors do you think contributed to people feeling pressure to push the button?
3. What situational factors might increase people's willingness to push the button? What situational factors might decrease their willingness? What questions do you have for plenary?
4. What would prevent you from pushing the button all the way through? How can you be sure you wouldn't? (How similar would the situation have to be for you to recognize the similarity to Milgram's study?)
5. What could we do at the level of institutions that might reduce the pressure to conform and obey to do harmful acts? (You can draw on strategies you came up with at the end of the PlayPosit).

Return to the whole class. GSI explains: Milgram did many variations on this experiment, and found that the further away the experimenter, the less people pushed the button; and the closer the victim, the less people pushed the button.

1. Why do you think experimenter distance made it easier to disobey?
2. Why do you think victim proximity made it easier to disobey?
3. What implications does this study have for our society? For the increasingly technological nature of war?

Fundamental Attribution Error

In this activity students are introduced to the broader phenomenon of the fundamental attribution error. The FAE describes people's surprise at both the Milgram and Asch experiments, as well as other situations where people underestimate the power of the situation. In other words, a lot of bad behavior comes not from bad people doing bad things, but from regular people in difficult situations. We can take this optimistically; it's not that people are intrinsically bad, it's that it's really hard to resist situations. So if we can change the situations —if we can make systemic change happen—then maybe we can drastically reduce harmful behavior. Students will practice generating alternative situational explanations to help them recognize the power of situation, and to reduce the natural tendency to underestimate it.

Instructions

1. GSI explains: These are two examples of what Lee Ross called the Fundamental Attribution Error, or lay dispositionism, the tendency for people to underestimate the influence of a situation on people's behavior and to overestimate the influence of individual differences in character. It describes the power of situation to make people do things they don't think they would ever do. Also the power of obedience, conformity, and the desire to save face/avoid embarrassment. It's also hard to remember that there are almost always options for action not explicitly given by the authority or the other people around you.
2. FAE Game:
   1. Each small group gets a jamboard pre-populated with a few postits with strange behaviors from this list. Each student adds postits describing strange behaviors that either (a.) they saw other people do recently or (b.) they themselves did recently (their choice). Students can write down more than one strange behavior if they want.
   2. The small group generates multiple plausible explanations for each behavior. Aim for explanations that appeal to the situation of the person!
   3. Everyone color codes the postits they posted, red for "saw someone else do this" and blue for "I did this," leaving yellow postits showing the seed actions. Are the actions you saw other people do really any stranger than the actions you did yourselves?
3. Whole class discussion: Why is it so easy to jump to conclusions? Why is it useful to consider multiple possible explanations for a behavior? How can we improve our institutions to reduce situational pressures that often cause harmful behavior (e.g. through obedience and conformity, as in the Milgram and Asch experiments)? What lingering questions do you have for plenary?

Status Quo Bias

Students are introduced to status quo bias, and discuss its justifications, injustices, and ramifications for society.

1. (5 min) GSI presents briefly on status quo bias.
   1. Status quo is Latin for "the state in which." It means the current way things are. The status quo bias is thus the tendency to want to keep things the way they are, an attitude of "if it ain't broke don't fix it."

Discussion Questions

1. (5 min) Small group discussion:
   1. What are some reasons that the status quo bias might be rational in some circumstances?
   2. What are some reasons that the status quo bias might be irrational in some circumstances?
   3. How do we distinguish what aspects of the status quo are worth maintaining, and which are worth changing?
   4. What questions do you have for plenary?
2. (5 minutes) Whole group discussion
3. What insights rose in your small group discussion?

Temporal Discounting

Students are introduced to temporal discounting and discuss its implications for personal and societal decision-making.

Have students watch this intro to temporal discounting (4 min) OR GSI explains it with a slide or two.

Discussion Questions

1. Why would we value the same amount of money more now than in the future?
2. Temporal discounting preferences are subjective. Under what conditions, if any, can we say they are irrational?
3. How might the tendency for steep temporal discounting play out in policymaking?
4. How does the tendency to value present goods over future equal goods exacerbate climate change?
5. Extension/Stretch/Bonus: Because of the hyperbolic shape of the temporal discounting curve, it's easier to give up soon-but-future rewards for much later and larger rewards than immediate-but-smaller rewards. This is one possible explanation for the movie-choosing pattern: # When told to choose a movie to watch tonight vs. next week, people are more likely to choose an action flick or a chick flick for tonight, and more likely to choose a documentary or something more artistic for next week. Why do you think this is? Given this pattern, how does the transition from ordering, borrowing, or buying videos to watching everything streaming online change our video-watching habits? Is there any way to counteract this?

Changemaker Discussion Question

Consider the following excerpt from Professor Auffhammer's fireside chat:

The other important thing about setbacks is there's something that's very important in social sciences and economists often claim this, it's called the sunk cost fallacy. If you've engaged in an activity, or you've made an investment, or you've done something that you'll never get back, right? You'll never recover the investment, or you'll never recover the effort that you've engaged in it, whatever comes next, right, the next decision you make should be independent of the effort you've expanded so far. Right? If you can't ever get it back. So, the notion here is economists will teach you this over and over again, ignore sunk costs in decision making. Took me almost 15 years to fully internalize this, and apply this in my professional life. So I would encourage you, when you're out there, you're a little bit bored, and you're thinking about, "I'm gonna to learn something new." Go around the internet and look for the words sunk cost fallacy. It will make your life better, both your personal and your professional life. So, ignore sunk costs at all costs.

Outside of the other heuristics you've learned in this section, Professor Auffhammer discusses the sunk cost fallacy. What is it and how does it lead to suboptimal decision making? Can you think of any examples in real life of it?

Collect Questions for Plenary

(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].