8.1 Orders of Understanding

Learning Goals

[Link to PlayPosit]

[Link to instructional video]

More details

After this lesson, students should

1. Recognise that there are usually multiple causes that contribute to an effect to varying degrees, ranked first-, second-, third-order, and so on.
2. Recognise that there are often multiple causes of the same order of importance.
3. Understand that for future decisions, such as finding solutions to a problem, we must first list all the possible interventions we are willing to consider (a question of values), before we evaluate the magnitude of the effect due to each intervention (a question of fact).
4. Understand that the underlying environment or circumstance (such as in which country the question is being asked) affects the ordering of causes.

Definitions

• Orders of causes

  The orders (of importance) of causes are based on the magnitude of the effect if each cause were removed or altered. The one(s) that produce(s) the overwhelmingly largest effect are called first-order cause(s), and subsequently second-order, and so on. There may be multiple causes at each order.

• Order of magnitude

  Factors of ten. A is one magnitude higher than B if it is approximately 10 times larger than B.

Examples

• Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs: Since the hierarchy is constructed such that each previous level must be satisfied before the higher ones become relevant, you can consider the lowest level as first order and each level up as one order higher.

Common Misconceptions

• You know what the real cause of unemployment is? It’s the stimulus cheques that the government is distributing discouraging people from finding a job.

  While the distribution of stimulus cheques may have an effect on employment, the more important question is to ask whether it is a leading cause of unemployment, or if there is another lower-order (more important) cause. Such a way of reasoning makes it possible in a debate to concede that X is a cause of unemployment, without fully conceding that it is the cause.

Context

This lesson introduces a practical framework for discussing cause and effect in this complex world. Specifically, the students should learn that there are usually multiple causes contributing to a certain effect, and it is possible to compare the magnitude of the effect due to two different causes. We wish to encourage students to consider all possible causes, rather than just claiming that “X is the cause of Y”.

Before

2.2 Causation and Correlation

• Causation is defined as correlation under intervention, or in other words, a clear effect is observed when the intervention is performed. Orders of explanation can be argued by considering the magnitude of the effect when each causal factor is turned on or off.
• RCTs are an idealised way to study the size of the effect due to a certain cause, when all else is held constant. It is possible to compare the magnitude of the effect due to two different causes by conducting two separate RCTs.

5.2 Hill's Criteria

When RCTs are impractical or impossible to conduct, Hill’s criteria may be used to argue about the existence and magnitude of the effect due to a certain cause.

After

7.2 Fermi Problems

The next lesson will introduce a practical method that can help us quickly estimate the magnitude of numerical quantities when there is little available information. We will use the Fermi estimation method to compare different sources of US government spending.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

• Prepare a seating chart.
• Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
• Familiarise yourself with the worksheet and print it.
• (Optional) Prepare a presentation.

During Class

• (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
• (6 min) Concept review.
• (25 min) Traffic accident activity.
• (15 min) Happiness activity.
• (24 min) Government spending activity.
• (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.

Lesson Content

Clicker Question

1. Question
   1. First option
   2. Second option
   3. Third option
   4. Fourth option

Activity 1: Name

[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]

Discussion Questions

1. Question 1
   1. Subquestion a

   2. Subquestion b

Collect Questions for Plenary

(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].