Concept groupings

The concepts of the course can be broadly grouped into six main categories.

Philosophical Underpinnings

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem. Ut enim virtutes, de quibus et ab antiquis, ad arbitrium suum scribere? Quodsi Graeci leguntur a Graecis isdem de rebus.

Relevant Lessons

• 1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant
• 1.2 Shared Reality and Modeling
• 2.1 Senses and Instrumentation
• 6.1 Correlation and Causation
• 6.2 Hill's Criteria
• 7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy
• 7.2 Emergent Phenomena

Probabilistic Thinking

Omnium philosophorum sententia tale debet esse, ut ad Orestem pervenias profectus a Theseo. At vero Epicurus una in domo, et ea quidem angusta, quam magnos quantaque amoris conspiratione consentientis tenuit amicorum greges! Quod fit etiam nunc ab Epicureis. Sed ad haec, nisi molestum est, habeo quae velim. An me, inquam, nisi te.

Relevant Lessons

• 3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning
• 3.2 Calibration of Credence Levels
• 4.1 Signal and Noise
• 4.2 Finding Patterns in Random Noise
• 5.1 False Positives and Negatives

Science's "Can-do" Aspect

Sola, quae nos exhorrescere metu non sinat. Qua praeceptrice in tranquillitate vivi potest omnium cupiditatum ardore restincto. Cupiditates enim sunt insatiabiles, quae non modo singulos homines, sed universas familias evertunt, totam etiam labefactant saepe rem publicam. Ex cupiditatibus odia, discidia, discordiae, seditiones, bella nascuntur, nec eae se foris solum iactant nec tantum in alios caeco impetu incurrunt, sed intus etiam in animis inclusae inter.

Relevant Lessons

• 5.2 Scientific Optimism
• 8.1 Orders of Understanding
• 8.2 Fermi Problems
• 12.2 Grill the Guest

Human Cognition

Ista sis aequitate, quam ostendis. Sed uti oratione perpetua malo quam interrogare aut interrogari. Ut placet, inquam. Tum dicere exorsus est. Primum igitur, inquit, sic agam, ut ipsi auctori huius.

Relevant Lessons

• 7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy
• 9.1 Heuristics
• 9.2 Biases
• 10.1 Confirmation Bias
• 10.2 Blinding

Group Decision Making

Et solida corpora ferri deorsum suo pondere ad lineam, hunc naturalem esse omnium corporum motum. Deinde ibidem homo acutus, cum illud ocurreret, si omnia deorsus e regione ferrentur et, ut dixi, ad lineam, hunc naturalem esse omnium corporum.

Relevant Lessons

• 1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant
• 12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking
• 13.1 Denver Bullet Study
• 13.2 Deliberative Polling

When Science is Suspect

Ego a philosopho, si afferat eloquentiam, non asperner, si non habeat, non admodum flagitem. Re mihi non aeque satisfacit, et quidem locis pluribus. Sed quot homines, tot sententiae; falli igitur possumus. Quam ob rem dissentientium inter se reprehensiones non sunt vituperandae, maledicta, contumeliae, tum iracundiae, contentiones concertationesque in disputando pertinaces indignae philosophia mihi videri solent. Tum Torquatus: Prorsus, inquit, assentior; neque enim disputari sine reprehensione nec cum istis tantopere.

Relevant Lessons

• 1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant
• 10.1 Confirmation Bias
• 10.2 Blinding
• 11.1 Pathological Science
• 11.2 When Is Science Suspect

All Topics

Week 1: The Purpose and Limitations of Science

• 1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant
• 1.2 Shared Reality and Modeling

Week 2: What we can Measure

• 2.1 Senses and Instrumentation
• 2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty

Week 3: Statements of Uncertainty

• 3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning
• 3.2 Calibration of Credence Levels

Week 4: Dealing with Noise

• 4.1 Signal and Noise
• 4.2 Finding Patterns in Random Noise

Week 5: Trade-offs and Progress

• 5.1 False Positives and Negatives
• 5.2 Scientific Optimism

Week 6: Establishing Causation

• 6.1 Correlation and Causation
• 6.2 Hill's Criteria

Week 7: Types and Consequences of Causation

• 7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy
• 7.2 Emergent Phenomena

Week 8: Describing and Simplifying Reality

• 8.1 Orders of Understanding
• 8.2 Fermi Problems

Week 9: Heuristics and Biases

• 9.1 Heuristics
• 9.2 Biases

Week 10: Catching and Countering Biases

• 10.1 Confirmation Bias
• 10.2 Blinding

Week 11: Science Gone Wrong

• 11.1 Pathological Science
• 11.2 When Is Science Suspect

Week 12: Group Evaluations

• 12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking
• 12.2 Grill the Guest

Week 13: Better Group Decision Making

• 13.1 Denver Bullet Study
• 13.2 Deliberative Polling

Week 14: The Outlook and Potential of Science

• 14.1 Scenario Planning
• 14.2 Wrap Up

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