14.1 Scenario Planning

A third approach to integrating facts and values under conditions of uncertainty about what the future will be like.

The Lesson in Context

We often face uncertainty when making future decisions. The scenario planning technique taught in this lesson provides a systematic way to consider a wider range of future possibilities, even ones that may be somewhat unlikely. This helps the planner plan for contingencies and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket.

3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning

• Future predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. Thus, one should be open to the possibility that the most likely future scenario does not happen. Scenario planning acknowledges this and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple possible futures.

8.1 Orders of Understanding

• When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often also need to think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what might change. In scenario planning, we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be.
• We usually want to put higher order factors on our scenario planning axes, to make sure we are considering the most important variables for possible futures.

Takeaways

Learning GoalsDefinitions

After this lesson, students should

1. Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
2. Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
3. Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
   1. Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
   2. Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
   3. Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.

Scenario Planning

A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.

Drivers

The drivers are the two axes used in a scenario planning plot. They should have the following features:

• Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other).
• Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in).
• Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.

Useful Resources

Lecture VideoDiscussion SlidesReadings and Assignments

Discussion Slides Template

The discussion slides for this lesson.

The Art of the Long View: Steps to Developing Scenarios

Appendix fom Peter Schwartz's book.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

Gather all the materials needed to run the scenario planning activity.

During Class

15 Minutes	Go through the cruise ship example.
65 Minutes	The entire rest of the class is dedicated to the scenario planning activity.

Lesson Content

Future of Cruising

Walk your students through this or another example.

Back in the olden days, people were very concerned about what the COVID-19 pandemic might mean for the cruise ship industry. The future was uncertain, the science was mysterious, and cruise lines needed to know what to do. It was time to plan some scenarios.

Step 1

Identify an issue of concern or some uncertain question. The example we'll be working through here is the future of cruise ship vacations. Draw out a two by two grid with two blank axes.

What the plan looks like after step 1.

Step 2

Pick two independent "axes of uncertainty" (driving factors) related to your topic, that can range from high to low. They should be 1st or 2nd order causes.

What the plan looks like after step 2.

Step 3

Consider (at least) four distinct futures (potential outcomes) that fall into each of the four quadrants.

What the plan looks like after step 3.

Step 4

For each of the distinct futures, describe in a sentence or two what this future looks like and write a newspaper headline that would tell you that you are in this future.

What the plan looks like after step 4.

Scenario Planning Activity

On large pieces of construction paper, the students will plan scenarios. This is done by drawing two axes to split the paper into four quadrants. The students will pick some "future of x" prompt and explore four possible scenarios of what said x could look like. To do this, they come up with two drivers that they put on the axes. The drivers should satisfy the following criteria:

• Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other)
• Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in)
• Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.

The scenarios involve coming up with creative headlines and pictures for the imagined futures.

Encourage the students to be very creative! It's alright if some of the scenarios are a little bit "sci-fi" in flavor.

Motivation

We've talked a lot about how research is done and how to turn that into policy decisions. But, how do you come up with those research agendas and policy decisions in the first place? And how do you ensure that those research and policy avenues are actually relevant to what the future ends up being? How do we avoid falling victim to confirmation bias in our predictions of the future?

Materials

• At least six sheets of large poster/construction paper
• Six sets of colored markers

Possible Futures

These are some sample "future of [math]\displaystyle{ x }[/math]" prompts that the students can choose from.

• The future of dating
• The future of entertainment
• The future of AI and its impact on society
• The future of humans in space
• The future of genetic modification
• The future of transportation
• The future of democracy
• The future of demographics
• The future of work

Instructions

5 Minutes	Review scenario planning with the students and explain the activity
3 Minutes	Give the students a chance to pick their "future of [math]\displaystyle{ x }[/math]" prompt. They will work in groups of 5.
7 Minutes	Let the students come up with two drivers of change for the topic that have the aforementioned features.
25 Minutes	The students come up with the four scenarios in the four quadrants. They should write down a description of each scenario in its spot. They should also come up with hypothetical newspaper headlines that would come up in that scenario.
15 Minutes	Have the students go through the discussion questions.
10 Minutes	The groups of students pair up and present their posters to each other.

Discussion Questions

1. Are there some quadrants which are more desirable than others? If so, what could we do now to make the more desirable quadrants more likely, or the less desirable quadrants less likely?
2. Our control over which quadrant we end up in is probably limited, especially as individuals. Given that some of the worst quadrants are possible, are there things we could do now to prepare so that the worst quadrants aren't as bad as they might otherwise be? Are there risks/costs to those preparations?
3. How would you know which scenario you're in or headed for? In other words, what are some leading indicators and signposts for each scenario? Are any of them non-obvious? Would you need to conduct a study in order to find them out?
4. What research questions do you want answered in order to predict the consequences of each scenario? Try to design one such study. Use as many course concepts as are relevant.

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14.2 Wrap Up