Quiz questions

Fact or value

Relevant topic(s): 1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant

In an international forum on climate change, the following statements are made by various parties across the globe. Identify if each of these statements is a claim of fact or a claim of value.

1. Leader of a major first world country: “The current change in global climate is not caused by humans.” (Fact/Value)
   1. A climate activist: “A world whose economy is built around environmental consciousness rather than corporate greed is a world that’s worth living in.” (Fact/Value)
2. An economist: “By my conservative estimate, the clean energy sector will create 1 million jobs within the next two years.” (Fact/Value)
3. An industry lobbyist: “More than half the population would prioritise maintaining job security over reducing the risks of climate change.” (Fact/Value)

Genetic engineering conference

Relevant topic(s): 1.2 Shared Reality

At a conference on genetic engineering, two panelists, Dr. Hallstein and Dr. Yamazawa, are having a heated debate over the effectiveness of gene editing of mosquitos in reducing the spread of malaria. Dr. Hallstein thinks the approach can drastically reduce disease spread, whereas Dr. Yamazawa argues that it has negligible effect. How can the attendees of the conference decide who is correct in reality? Choose one.

1. They cannot. Both panelists are correct to themselves, and they should agree to disagree.
2. The attendees should take a vote. The claim receiving more than 50% of the votes is the correct one.
3. They should defer to the most reputable senior scientist at the conference.
4. They cannot yet, but they can continue to gather more evidence to see which opinion is more likely to be correct.

Instruments you use

Relevant topic(s): 2.1 Senses and Instrumentation

1. List two instruments for perception that you use regularly, which extend your observation beyond direct perception through your senses.

2. Choose one instrument from the two you wrote above. By making reference to the concept of interactive exploration (as described by Ian Hacking in the reading about instrumentation), give one reason why you trust it.

3. List one possible problem that could cause this instrument to lead you awry. Explain briefly how you would know that it misled you about reality.

Sleep studies

Relevant topic(s): 3.1 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty

1. Many psychological studies are performed on university undergraduates who volunteer as experimental subjects in exchange for academic credit or cash. Suppose one such study attempts to measure the average amount of sleep humans have per week by asking 10 random students on Sproul Plaza to recall their sleep times in the past week.
   1. Name one source of systematic uncertainty in such a measurement.

   2. How would you improve the study to reduce this systematic uncertainty?

Jefe Pesos

Relevant topic(s): 7.2 Fermi Problems

Jefe Pesos, an (hypothetical) American billionaire, has earned US$100 billion (that’s US$100,000,000,000) since the beginning of the pandemic one year ago. Would he have been able to pay for the basic food costs for the poorest 10% of children in the US, for whom hunger is a constant concern, for one year? Use Fermi estimation. (Please show your working and write down all your assumptions. You will not be marked by the accuracy of your estimates, but by the process of your calculation.)

EmDrive

Relevant topic(s): 9.1 Pathological Science

EmDrive is a proposed device that generates thrust just by reflecting microwaves internally, surprisingly violating the conservation of momentum. It garnered widespread attention from the scientific and engineering community, many of whom have devoted resources to developing and validating such a device. In 2016, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that they observed a small apparent thrust from an EmDrive that they had constructed. The result was published after a year of peer review by 5 referees. However, other researchers had since failed to reproduce this result, and most did not see an effect larger than the experimental margin of error itself. In 2021, the 2016 study was found to have omitted to take into account the effect due to the Earth's magnetic field, rendering the result illusory.

Langmuir’s criteria for pathological science:

1. The effect is produced by a barely detectable cause, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause.
2. The effect is barely detectable or has very low statistical significance.
3. Claims of great accuracy.
4. Involving fantastical theories contrary to experience.
5. Criticisms are met with ad hoc excuses.
6. Ratio of supporters to critics rises to near 1:1, then drops back to near zero.

1. It is not always clear when something is a case of pathological science. Name one of Langmuir’s indicators (just write the number) that is present in this example and explain your answer.
2. Name one of Langmuir’s indicators (just write the number) that is NOT present in this example and explain your answer.

Seuss' sneetches

Relevant topic(s): 9.2 When Is Science Suspect

There are two communities of sneetches living in the same town—those with a star pattern on their bellies and those without. The star-bellied sneetches have done lots of research on starless sneetches. Of the following studies, knowing nothing else, which should you be most skeptical about?

1. A study on the swimming speed of starless sneetches
2. A study on the sophistication of speech of starless sneetches
3. A study on the starless sneetches’ susceptibility to sun-sensitive sneezes
4. A study on the starless sneetches’ satisfaction with street sweeping services
5. A study on the starless sneetches’ sleep schedules

Confirmation bias

Relevant topic(s): 10.1 Confirmation Bias

In 1997, Keith Stanovich and Richard West developed a measure called the Argument Evaluation Test (AET) for how well one can evaluate the quality of an argument independent of one’s prior beliefs. They first asked individuals how much they agreed or disagreed with each of the 23 topic statements (concerning gun control, taxes, crime, etc.). Then, they asked the individuals to rate the quality of a series of arguments made by a fictional person, Dale, for or against the same 23 topics statements. Stanovich and West have found strong evidence for confirmation bias in this measure.

1. What pattern of data would Stanovich and West observe to demonstrate that participants engage in confirmation bias?
2. Is this an example of (circle one):
   1. Biased assimilation
   2. Selective exposure

Blind analysis

Relevant topic(s): 10.2 Blind Analysis

Christa is trying to see which of two medications works better. She divides her patients into two groups, a treatment group and a control group. Which of the following variants (none of which are ideal) employs blind analysis?

1. Both Christa and the patients know who is in which group. Christa looks at the labelled data as she makes statistical choices, such as which outliers to exclude.
2. Christa knows which patients are in which group, but the patients themselves do not know. Christa looks at the labelled data as she makes statistical choices, such as which outliers to exclude.
3. Both Christa and the patients know who is in which group. However, Christa’s data is not labelled when she makes choices during statistical analysis, such as which outliers to exclude.
4. Neither Christa nor the patients know who is in which group. Christa looks at the labelled data as she makes statistical choices, such as which outliers to exclude.
5. Neither Christa nor the patients know who is in which group. Christa wears a blindfold while she performs statistical analysis.

Singular and general causation

Relevant topic(s): 11.1 Singular and General Causation

From the following statements, select the one(s) that is/are about general causation.

1. The El Dorado wildfire in 2020 was caused by a smoke bomb at a gender reveal party.
2. Ariel’s back injury was caused by lifting heavy weights with bad posture at the gym earlier today.
3. Inhalation of radon from radioactive minerals underground is the second leading cause of lung cancer.
4. A reduction in gun violence can be achieved by requiring gun owners to first take and pass a safety and competency test.
5. Chantelle’s award of a special exploratory grant enabled her discovery of a new molecule.

Wisdom of crowds

Relevant topic(s): 12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking

In which of the following scenarios would you expect the “wisdom of crowds” effect to have the largest positive impact on the result (i.e. to get closer to the true answer)? Estimating the heaviest recorded weight of a pumpkin in a large college classroom by having the students shout their own guesses one after another

1. Estimating the number of traffic lights in San Francisco by selecting a random sample of the US population, having them discuss the question in groups, and then averaging their individual guesses
2. Estimating the height of the empire state building by selecting a random group of university students, and having them discuss the question and agree on a collective guess
3. Estimating the largest recorded weight of a tiger by selecting a random sample of the world population, and having them discuss the question in groups and agree on a collective guess
4. Estimating the height of the tallest tree in the US by selecting a large, random sample of the US population and averaging their individual guesses

High-speed rail

Relevant topic(s): 12.2 Denver Bullet Study

Suppose you are a government official tasked with developing a plan for a new high-speed railway system across your country. Several foreign countries, including China, France, Germany, and Japan, have already offered development plans using their own high-speed rail technology under significant foreign investment. You have also thought about developing the system entirely domestically to boost the national economy, but this will certainly take longer than foreign development plans.

You remember Prof. Campbell’s lecture on the Denver bullet study from your days at Berkeley and hope to use it to make a decision by integrating facts and values.

1. Name two factors or features of the high-speed rail plans that will play a significant role in the decision making process.
2. Name two stakeholders and two types of experts for this situation.
3. Briefly explain how the Denver bullet study technique produces or outputs a final decision on the optimal high-speed railway plan.