13.1 Denver Bullet Study

The Denver Bullet Study offers one approach to integrating facts and values in a controversial real-world problem, drawing facts from a set of experts, gauging the values of different stakeholders, and bringing these together for a final decision.

The Lesson in Context

Near the end of the course, we introduce some techniques for group decision making that have seen some real-world success. Denver Bullet Study exemplifies the division of a contentious issue into facts and values in such a way that the community was able to come to a more generally satisfying decision than initially seemed possible.

Earlier Lessons

1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant

• Facts and values of an issue are distinguished in the Denver Bullet Study method. Facts are evaluated by experts, while values are decided by polling stakeholders.

5.2 Scientific Optimism

• Even as the public seem to have reached an impasse on a contentious issue, there are still techniques that can be used to reach a consensus, or at least find a solution that addresses the priorities of a larger number of stakeholders.

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Later Lessons

13.2 Deliberative Polling

• Another technique for group decision making in which experts and stakeholders are involved and facts and values are distinguished. Through group deliberation punctuated by Q&A with an expert panel, it aims to predict the change in public opinion if the public were to be more factually informed on a contentious issue, but it does not aim to reach a consensus or directly decide on a policy.

Takeaways

Learning GoalsDefinitionsCommon Misconceptions

After this lesson, students should

1. Be optimistic that a community can come together to make a decision, even when people begin with heterogeneous values and beliefs.
2. Be able to identify the stakeholders and experts and distinguish between the values and facts of an issue.

Stakeholders

The set of people who have a stake in the outcome of a decision. This can include people who will implement the decision and all the people affected by it.

Experts

The set of people who have the most knowledge/information/expertise about the facts relevant to the decision, generally by virtue of having spent the most time and effort learning about the topic.

Denver Bullet Study

An experiment in group deliberation in which a community came together to share values and knowledge to make a decision about what kind of bullet the Denver Police should use, which had enough stopping power to keep cops safe but was not so harmful as to cause unnecessary damage to citizens (as did classic hollow bullets).

The town should vote on whether they think these windmills kill seabirds or cause loud noise.

These are factual factors that most stakeholders (townspeople) would not have informed opinions on. Instead, they should be evaluated by relevant experts. Stakeholders can then vote (or put numerical weights) on how much they value the lives of seabirds or quietness.

We should just let the experts make all the decisions.

It is important to involve the public (or relevant stakeholders) in making group decisions, as factual evaluation must be combined with a group's values judgment (of what they deem important). Experts can give their evaluation of factual matters, but they may not represent the values of the stakeholders.

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