5.2 Scientific Optimism

Learning Goals

[Link to PlayPosit]

[Link to instructional video]

More details

After this lesson, students should

Appreciate how the “can-do” spirit of inquiry (and inventive experimental techniques) counter-balances the difficulties of discovery/innovation.
Appreciate that iterative work on a problem is the norm in science and the most productive approach (and in some cases the only way of being productive), even when it looks like it’s not getting anywhere. Persisting on difficult problems will eventually pay off with interesting insights.
Recognise that an optimistic view of the tractability of a problem and/or one’s ability to solve it eventually can in itself affect one’s capacity to solve the problem.
Feel optimistic about the possibility of “enlarging the pie” in societal problems, rather than resorting to playing a “zero-sum game”.

Definitions

Term
Explanation.

Scientific optimism
The can-do attitude of problem solving that pushes one to persist in working iteratively on a problem.
Zero-sum game
A game in which the amount won by one player is equal to the total amount lost by all other players. “You must lose for me to win.”
Enlarging the pie
In other words, a positive-sum game, in which one player winning does not necessarily mean that others must lose the same amount. It encourages collaboration between players to make everyone win.

Examples

Cosmic Distance Ladder: Over time cosmologists have been able to measure distances to farther and farther objects. Several centuries ago the best that could be done was having approximate distances to the moon and other planets. But, by gradually building on each others techniques, we now know the distances of the farthest objects in the observable universe. They can start by using parallax to get estimates based on how the relative locations of stars shift in the night sky as the Earth rotates around the sun. Then, by comparing the luminosity of ever brighter (and rarer) objects of consistent known brightness, astronomers have been able to create a series of standard candles that make up a “cosmic distance ladder” reaching all the way to the edges of the known universe. Astronomers have now developed several independent cosmic distance ladders. But, the classic one begins with using nearer and farther Cepheid variables then eventually type 1A supernova to measure the most distant objects.
Poincaré Conjecture: After proving the longstanding Poincaré Conjecture and being offered the prestigious Fields Medal, Grigori Perelman rejected the prize, stating that his work merely built upon his predecessor Richard Hamilton’s. Even though it is the final triumph that is publicised and celebrated, it is the countless hours of incremental work that lays the foundation for that triumph.
Katalin Kariko, the daughter of a butcher in Hungary, decided she wanted to be a scientist even though she’d never met one. She spent her entire career studying mRNA, convinced it could be used to make vaccines. As grant after grant was rejected, and the University of Pennsylvania rejected her tenure, Dr. Kariko nevertheless persisted in her project. Recently, in her 60s, she and her colleagues made the breakthrough that led to the mRNA vaccine for Covid-19. Scientists are now hopeful that this breakthrough may lead to other vaccines for a wide variety of major diseases, including malaria, cancer, and AIDS. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/08/health/coronavirus-mrna-kariko.html
“Perfection is the enemy of progress.” Winston Churchill

Common Misconceptions

Many people have tried to solve this problem of increasing illiteracy and failed, so we shouldn’t throw more good money after bad — some problems are just intractable.
Even tiny improvements can be quite substantial in changing people’s lives. Additionally, even though progress may be slow or invisible (only in certain communities, etc.), its cumulative effect can be enormous.
Scientists have been trying to figure out what dark matter is for decades, and we still basically have no idea. We'll probably never know, so it's not worth working on.
We may not know exactly what dark matter is. But, scientists have managed to substantially expand the list of things it isn’t. This is still progress and could ultimately give us real insight about the nature of dark matter.

Context

This lesson teaches students that one’s optimistic and persistent attitude towards scientific problem solving is just as important as understanding the philosophical underpinnings of the scientific method. Throughout the semester, we teach students how science or human reasoning can go awry, and it is important to balance this healthy scepticism with the optimism that iterative progress is still possible in problems big and small. Students will experience this hands-on in an activity in which they have to come up with an explanation for an experimental observation of spinning tubes.

Before

1.2 Shared Reality

Knowing that our perception and measurement of external reality are inevitably imperfect, it is still possible to collectively make iterative progress towards improving our understanding of the shared reality.

Recommended Outline

Before Class

[Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
Prepare a seating chart.
Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
Print out handouts for the “optimistic” and “pessimistic” groups.
Remind the students to come up with a Project 2 topic to be discussed with the GSI in this lesson.
(Optional) Prepare a presentation.

During Class

(5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
(55 min) Distribute the two different handouts to two halves of the class for the priming activity. Then, let students work on the spinning tubes activity. Any groups that don’t take the whole time should be free to work on their Project 2 proposals and talk them over with the GSI.
(13 min) Discussion questions from the spinning tubes activity.
(5 min) Collect questions for plenary.

After Class

Record the number of optimistic/pessimistic students who succeeded/failed at the activity into this spreadsheet.
One GSI should compile the total numbers and put them into the faculty report.

Lesson Content

Clicker Question

Question
1. Option 1
2. Options 2

Activity 1: Name

[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]

Instructions

Discussion Questions

Question 1
1. Subquestion a

Question 2
1. Subquestion b
The Guardian article about Thomas Kuhn describes his perspective on scientific activity as "puzzle-solving". What does the article mean by this and how does that relate to scientific optimism?

Collect Questions for Plenary

(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].