The Purpose and Limitations of Science
Introduction and When Is Science Relevant
Shared Reality and Modeling
What we can Measure
Senses and Instrumentation
Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty
Statements of Uncertainty
Probabilistic Reasoning
Calibration of Credence Levels
Dealing with Noise
Signal and Noise
Finding Patterns in Random Noise
Trade-offs nad Progress
False Positives and Negatives
Scientific Optimism
Establishing Causation
Correlation and Causation
Hill's Criteria
Types and Consequences of Causation
Causation, Blame, and Policy
Emergent Phenomena
Describing and Simplifying Reality
Orders of Understanding
Fermi Problems
Heuristics and Biases
Heuristics
Biases
Catching and Countering Biases
Confirmation Bias
Blinding
Science Gone Wrong
Pathological Science
When Is Science Suspect
Group Evaluations
Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking
Better Group Decision Making
Denver Bullet Study
Deliberative Polling
The Outlook and Potential of Science
Scenario Planning
Wrap Up
