Concept groupings

The concepts of the course can be broadly grouped into six main categories.

Work in Progress

This section is currently being written or undergoing major revision.

Philosophical Underpinnings

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magnam aliquam quaerat voluptatem. Ut enim virtutes, de quibus et ab antiquis, ad arbitrium suum scribere? Quodsi Graeci leguntur a Graecis isdem de rebus.

Relevant Lessons

Probabilistic Thinking

Omnium philosophorum sententia tale debet esse, ut ad Orestem pervenias profectus a Theseo. At vero Epicurus una in domo, et ea quidem angusta, quam magnos quantaque amoris conspiratione consentientis tenuit amicorum greges! Quod fit etiam nunc ab Epicureis. Sed ad haec, nisi molestum est, habeo quae velim. An me, inquam, nisi te.

Relevant Lessons

Science's Can-do Aspect

Sola, quae nos exhorrescere metu non sinat. Qua praeceptrice in tranquillitate vivi potest omnium cupiditatum ardore restincto. Cupiditates enim sunt insatiabiles, quae non modo singulos homines, sed universas familias evertunt, totam etiam labefactant saepe rem publicam. Ex cupiditatibus odia, discidia, discordiae, seditiones, bella nascuntur, nec eae se foris solum iactant nec tantum in alios caeco impetu incurrunt, sed intus etiam in animis inclusae inter.

Relevant Lessons

Human Cognition

Ista sis aequitate, quam ostendis. Sed uti oratione perpetua malo quam interrogare aut interrogari. Ut placet, inquam. Tum dicere exorsus est. Primum igitur, inquit, sic agam, ut ipsi auctori huius.

Relevant Lessons

Group Decision Making

Et solida corpora ferri deorsum suo pondere ad lineam, hunc naturalem esse omnium corporum motum. Deinde ibidem homo acutus, cum illud ocurreret, si omnia deorsus e regione ferrentur et, ut dixi, ad lineam, hunc naturalem esse omnium corporum.

Relevant Lessons

When Science is Suspect

Ego a philosopho, si afferat eloquentiam, non asperner, si non habeat, non admodum flagitem. Re mihi non aeque satisfacit, et quidem locis pluribus. Sed quot homines, tot sententiae; falli igitur possumus. Quam ob rem dissentientium inter se reprehensiones non sunt vituperandae, maledicta, contumeliae, tum iracundiae, contentiones concertationesque in disputando pertinaces indignae philosophia mihi videri solent. Tum Torquatus: Prorsus, inquit, assentior; neque enim disputari sine reprehensione nec cum istis tantopere.

Relevant Lessons

All Topics

	1.1 Introduction and When Is Science Relevant	When is science relevant? The many uses of a scientific approach.
	1.2 Shared Reality and Modeling	Science is grounded in belief in a common, shared reality with some degree of regularity.
	2.1 Senses and Instrumentation	Science uses both our direct senses and a variety of instruments to extend our ability to observe phenomena. We trust our instruments for the same reasons we trust our senses; interactive exploration and comparison.
	2.2 Systematic and Statistical Uncertainty	This topic explores the sources of error and uncertainty in data.
	3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning	Using meta-judgments of the likelihood that your best judgment is right—how confident you are—enables decisions that take uncertainty into account.
	3.2 Calibration of Credence Levels	It is important to check the calibration of credence levels; that is, how good one's judgments are about how likely each of one's claims is to be right.
	4.1 Signal and Noise	The challenges of finding the information we want amidst messy data.
	4.2 Finding Patterns in Random Noise	We often find mistake noise for signal; how do we minimize these mistakes, given that they are not always easy to tell apart?
	5.1 False Positives and Negatives	Considering the relative costs of each possible mistake helps us make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty, when we cannot eliminate the possibility of a mistake either way.
	5.2 Scientific Optimism	The psychological trick of believing one will make progress long enough to enable solving difficult problems.
	6.1 Correlation and Causation	An introduction to the scientific approach to determining causal relationships.
	6.2 Hill's Criteria	Building on Correlation and Causation, we examine how to collect evidence for causality in more difficult cases.
	7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy	Distinguishing singular causation ([math]\displaystyle{ A }[/math] caused [math]\displaystyle{ B }[/math]) from general causation ([math]\displaystyle{ X }[/math] tends to cause [math]\displaystyle{ Y }[/math]).
	7.2 Emergent Phenomena	Many phenomena in science are emergent, i.e., visible only at higher levels of organization. This tends to occur when large numbers of elements interact, e.g. as in individuals on social media.
	8.1 Orders of Understanding	Because each event and/or phenomenon has many causal factors, it is often important to distinguish which factors affect it the most and which factors play a smaller role.
	8.2 Fermi Problems	Estimating quantities based on what we know.
	9.1 Heuristics	Some of the heuristics biases that make our probability judgments go awry.
	9.2 Biases	Some of the psychological biases that make our probability judgments go awry.
	10.1 Confirmation Bias	Our tendency to preserve our existing or preferred beliefs, even against the evidence.
	10.2 Blinding	Blind analysis, the practice of deciding how we will analyze data before finding out if the analysis we have chosen supports our hypothesis, counteracts confirmation bias.
	11.1 Pathological Science	How to catch bad science.
	11.2 When Is Science Suspect	The capacity for science to be misused to reinforce existing power structures.
	12.1 Wisdom of Crowds and Herd Thinking	Explore ways that groups fall short of their optimal reasoning ability. There are better and worse ways to aggregate a group's knowledge.
	12.2 Grill the Guest	Confront a working scientist about their work using course concepts.
	13.1 Denver Bullet Study	The Denver Bullet Study offers one approach to integrating facts and values in a controversial real-world problem, drawing facts from a set of experts, gauging the values of different stakeholders, and bringing these together for a final decision.
	13.2 Deliberative Polling	Another approach to getting groups of people to come together to make decisions, in a process where the integration of facts and values is scaffolded.
	14.1 Scenario Planning	A third approach to integrating facts and values under conditions of uncertainty about what the future will be like.
	14.2 Wrap Up	An overview and conclusion of the course.

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