8.1 Orders of Understanding
More actions
| Fill out the learning goals and definitions. |
| Add links in learning goals. |
| Write the "context" for how this lesson connects with others. |
| Edit previous lesson to see if there's any setup for this lesson that needs to be in the "During Class" or "After Class" section of the last. |
| Fill out the lesson content. |
| Fill out or delete anything with "[...]" remaining. |
Learning Goals
[Link to PlayPosit]
[Link to instructional video]
After this lesson, students should
- Recognize that there are usually multiple causes that contribute to an effect to varying degrees, ranked first-, second-, third-order, and so on.
- Recognize that there are often multiple causes of the same order of importance.
- Understand that for future decisions, such as finding solutions to a problem, we must first list all the possible interventions we are willing to consider (a question of values), before we evaluate the magnitude of the effect due to each intervention (a question of fact).
- Understand that the underlying environment or circumstance (such as in which country the question is being asked) affects the ordering of causes.
Definitions
- Orders of causes
- The orders (of importance) of causes are based on the magnitude of the effect if each cause were removed or altered. The one(s) that produce(s) the overwhelmingly largest effect are called first-order cause(s), and subsequently second-order, and so on. There may be multiple causes at each order.
- Order of magnitude
- Factors of ten. A is one magnitude higher than B if it is approximately 10 times larger than B.
Examples
- Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs: Since the hierarchy is constructed such that each previous level must be satisfied before the higher ones become relevant, you can consider the lowest level as first order and each level up as one order higher.
Common Misconceptions
- You know what the real cause of unemployment is? It's the stimulus cheques that the government is distributing discouraging people from finding a job.
- While the distribution of stimulus cheques may have an effect on employment, the more important question is to ask whether it is a leading cause of unemployment, or if there is another lower-order (more important) cause. Such a way of reasoning makes it possible in a debate to concede that X is a cause of unemployment, without fully conceding that it is the cause.
Context
This lesson introduces a practical framework for discussing cause and effect in this complex world. Specifically, the students should learn that there are usually multiple causes contributing to a certain effect, and it is possible to compare the magnitude of the effect due to two different causes. We wish to encourage students to consider all possible causes, rather than just claiming that "X is the cause of Y".
Before
- 6.1 Correlation and Causation
- Causation is defined as correlation under intervention, or in other words, a clear effect is observed when the intervention is performed. Orders of explanation can be argued by considering the magnitude of the effect when each causal factor is turned on or off.
- RCTs are an idealized way to study the size of the effect due to a certain cause, when all else is held constant. It is possible to compare the magnitude of the effect due to two different causes by conducting two separate RCTs.
- 6.2 Hill's Criteria
- When RCTs are impractical or impossible to conduct, Hill's criteria may be used to argue about the existence and magnitude of the effect due to a certain cause.
After
- 8.2 Fermi Problems
- The next lesson will introduce a practical method that can help us quickly estimate the magnitude of numerical quantities when there is little available information. We will use the Fermi estimation method to compare different sources of US government spending.
Recommended Outline
Before Class
- Prepare a seating chart.
- Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
- Familiarise yourself with the worksheet and print it.
- (Optional) Prepare a presentation.
During Class
- (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
- (6 min) Concept review.
- (25 min) Traffic accident activity.
- (15 min) Happiness activity.
- (24 min) Government spending activity.
- (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.
Lesson Content
Discussion Question
- (3 min) How would you explain the idea of orders of understanding to a friend or family member who may not be familiar with the concept?
Introductory Example
Open with the following class poll and give students a minute to discuss before answering.
- Claim: "Sam makes a lot of money because she works hard." Do you think Sam's hard work is:
- A first order cause of her high income.
- A second order cause of her high income.
- A third or higher order cause of her high income.
- Not a cause of her high income.
After the poll results are revealed, tell the students that you forgot to find out whether Sam was born in Bangladesh or the Upper East Side of Manhattan. What if Sam attended college? Open the poll again and give students another minute to discuss before answering.
| The extent to which "hard work" plays a role in how much money Sam makes is a second (or higher) order cause in all of these cases. The first order cause would be what her circumstances are. If she was born in the Upper East Side then there's a much higher floor and ceiling to what Sam could conceivably earn than if she were born in Bangladesh. |
Traffic Accidents
This activity lets students practice assigning orders to various causes. In particular, it frames the orders of causes in terms of intervention (c.f. 6.1 Correlation and Causation). It also highlights the importance of first considering the set of relevant or realistic interventions, before studying the magnitude of the effect of each intervention.
Instructions
- (20 min) Have students follow instructions on the worksheet and answer any questions they may have.
- (5 min) Whole class discussion sharing their results.
| The orders are somewhat based on one's intuition, and there are no correct or recommended answers for this activity. The purpose is to let students reflect on and discuss the relative impact of various causes of traffic accidents, as well as the relevance of interventions as a way of studying the effect size. |
Discussion Questions
As a whole class, discuss the following questions.
- Were there any factors that were particularly hard to determine?
- Did anyone come up with specific methods or criteria for determining the orders?
- Were there any factors that your group could not agree upon?
Happiness
This activity gives students another opportunity to reflect on possible interventions on their life and the order of importance to their happiness of each intervention.
Instructions
- (10 min) Have students follow instructions on the worksheet and answer any questions they may have.
- (5 min) Whole class discussion sharing their results.
Discussion Questions
As a whole class, discuss the following questions.
- What did you learn about your happiness from this exercise?
- Is there anything that you might want to do differently in your life?
Government Spending
| Prioritize this activity, as it will be continued in the next lesson. |
- (20 min) Have students follow instructions on the worksheet and answer any questions they may have.
- (4 min) Whole class discussion sharing their results.
| Tell students to keep this worksheet for the next lesson, so they can compare their rankings of government spending before and after they use Fermi estimation. |
Collect Questions for Plenary
(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].