7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy
From Sense & Sensibility & Science
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Learning Goals
[Link to PlayPosit]
After this lesson, students should
- Distinguish between singular and general causation.
- Distinguish between the evidence needed to establish singular or general causation.
- Identify different policy implications of singular or general causation.
Definitions
- Singular causation
- A causal relation between two specific events.
- General causation
- A causal relation between two variables.
Examples
- A randomised controlled trial for a drug may demonstrate its general therapeutic effect, e.g. taking this drug reduces the risks of this disease, but it cannot demonstrate any causal connection in any particular instance of a patient taking this drug.
- One can claim that climate change causes extreme weather events, but not that any particular instance of wildfire was caused by climate change.
Common Misconceptions
- Mistaken quote
- Explanation.
Context
This course has so far only discussed general causation, which can be demonstrated through randomised controlled trials and to a weaker extent Hill's criteria. Policy and legal decisions depend both on singular causation as well as general causation. They also depend on whether the causation is by commission or by omission. The famous Trolley dilemma is discussed.
Before
- 2.2 Causation and Correlation
- RCTs only demonstrate general causation but not singular causation. Correlation is also a statistical relationship between two variables, rather than between two singular events.
- 5.2 Hill's Criteria
- As a substitute for RCTs, Hill's criteria also only demonstrate general causation.
- 7.1 Orders of Understanding
- Any given effect may be brought about by a complex combination of many causes (which may interact with each other), with varying degrees of influence on the outcome. This is true for both singular and general causation.
Recommended Outline
Before Class
- [Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
- Prepare a seating chart.
- Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
- (Optional) Prepare a presentation.
During Class
- (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
- ([#] min) [Description of some module from #Lesson Content]
- (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.
After Class
- [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
- Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.
Lesson Content
Clicker Question
- Question
Correct answer. - First option
- Second option
- Third option
- Fourth option
Activity 1: Name
[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]
| Common misconceptions and any useful tricks, tips, guidelines, or other background |
Instructions
Discussion Questions
- Question 1
- Subquestion a
Possible misconception that may need to be corrected and clarified. Intended answer to the above question.
- Subquestion b
- Subquestion a
Discussion Questions
- Question 1
- Subquestion a
Possible misconception that may need to be corrected and clarified. Intended answer to the above question.
- Subquestion b
- Subquestion a
Collect Questions for Plenary
(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].