7.1 Causation, Blame, and Policy
From Sense & Sensibility & Science
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Learning Goals
[Link to PlayPosit]
After this lesson, students should
- Distinguish between singular and general causation.
- Distinguish between the evidence needed to establish singular or general causation.
- Identify different policy implications of singular or general causation.
Definitions
- Singular causation
- A causal relation between two specific events.
- General causation
- A causal relation between two variables.
Examples
- A randomised controlled trial for a drug may demonstrate its general therapeutic effect, e.g. taking this drug reduces the risks of this disease, but it cannot demonstrate any causal connection in any particular instance of a patient taking this drug.
- One can claim that climate change causes extreme weather events, but not that any particular instance of wildfire was caused by climate change.
Common Misconceptions
- Mistaken quote
- Explanation.
Context
This course has so far only discussed general causation, which can be demonstrated through randomised controlled trials and to a weaker extent Hill's criteria. Policy and legal decisions depend both on singular causation as well as general causation. They also depend on whether the causation is by commission or by omission. The famous Trolley dilemma is discussed.
Before
- 2.2 Causation and Correlation
- RCTs only demonstrate general causation but not singular causation. Correlation is also a statistical relationship between two variables, rather than between two singular events.
- 5.2 Hill's Criteria
- As a substitute for RCTs, Hill's criteria also only demonstrate general causation.
- 7.1 Orders of Understanding
- Any given effect may be brought about by a complex combination of many causes (which may interact with each other), with varying degrees of influence on the outcome. This is true for both singular and general causation.
Recommended Outline
Before Class
- [Any essential logistical things that need to be done for this class]
- Prepare a seating chart.
- Review PlayPosit and discussion questions and ask faculty, Gabriel, or Emlen any questions you have.
- (Optional) Prepare a presentation.
During Class
- (5 min) Come up with some fun way to assign the roles of spokesperson and notetaker (e.g. earliest birthday in the year, lives furthest from campus). Remind them of the responsibilities of these roles.
- ([#] min) [Description of some module from #Lesson Content]
- (5 min) Collect questions for plenary.
After Class
- [Any essential logistical things that need to be done as followup for this class]
- Collect answers from notetakers for the forum / plenary.
Lesson Content
Clicker Question
- Question
Correct answer. - First option
- Second option
- Third option
- Fourth option
Activity 1: Name
[Brief description of and motivation for the activity]
| Common misconceptions and any useful tricks, tips, guidelines, or other background |
Instructions
Singular and General Causation Discussion Questions
- Which kind of causation can an RCT establish?
General causation. The purpose of an RCT is to average away all the nuances that arise from the singular cases of the individuals in the trial.
- Suppose we conduct an RCT that determines salt causes heart disease. Suppose Sally is in our study, has a high level of salt, and contracts heart disease. Did Sally’s salt intake cause her heart disease?
It's impossible to say for sure. All we really know is that Sally was more likely to develop heart disease than someone with less salt intake. In this way the trial is suggestive that the salt intake played some role in causing her heart disease. But, that's all our trial tells us.
- On January 4, 2022, a federal inquiry into the Dixie Fire of August 2021, the second largest wildfire in California history, determined the wildfire began when a tree came in contact with a power line operated by PG&E.
- Is this a statement of singular or general causation?
Singular causation.
- It is well established that climate change increases the number and intensity of wildfires in California. Given this known fact, why did the federal investigation not immediately conclude that climate change was the cause?
Although climate change tends to result in worse wildfire seasons, it has to do this via some mechanism. It can lead to hotter weather and drier foliage. This doesn't cause fires directly but increases the likelihood that other things that tend to start fires actually end up doing so. Identifying which mechanism was the singular cause of this fire can help us find additional general causes (such as uncleared foliage and unmaintained infrastructure) that work in conjunction with climate change.
- PG&E has faced criminal charges from multiple California counties for the role of its equipment in causing wildfires. When determining guilt or innocence, does the legal system typically focus on singular or general causation?
The legal system typically punishes acts of singular causation. However, this is done with the intent of discouraging future acts. In this way, it acts generally as well.
- Assume you’re in charge of creating policy to prevent California wildfires like the Dixie Fire from happening in the future. What are some policies that might have prevented the Dixie Fire? Does policy making typically focus on singular or general causation?
Policies to address climate change and increase infrastructure standards would help prevent cases like the Dixie Fire. These focus on general causation. Even policies that increase the punishment for having roles in starting fires are ultimately addressing general causation as well.
- Is this a statement of singular or general causation?
- Why do you think it is so tempting to assume that each event has a singular person or entity to blame? When is this useful or not useful?
Discussion Questions
- Question 1
- Subquestion a
Possible misconception that may need to be corrected and clarified. Intended answer to the above question.
- Subquestion b
- Subquestion a
Collect Questions for Plenary
(5 min) Collect remaining questions from the students for faculty in plenary (can be questions for clarification, extension, discussion, etc.), and add [ here].