14.1 Scenario Planning
More actions
A third approach to integrating facts and values under conditions of uncertainty about what the future will be like.
The Lesson in Context
We often face uncertainty when making future decisions. The scenario planning technique taught in this lesson provides a systematic way to consider a wider range of future possibilities, even ones that may be somewhat unlikely. This helps the planner plan for contingencies and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket.
- Future predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. Thus, one should be open to the possibility that the most likely future scenario does not happen. Scenario planning acknowledges this and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple possible futures.
- When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often also need to think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what might change. In scenario planning, we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be.
- We usually want to put higher order factors on our scenario planning axes, to make sure we are considering the most important variables for possible futures.
Takeaways
After this lesson, students should
- Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
- Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
- Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
- Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
- Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
- Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.
Scenario Planning
Drivers
- Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other).
- Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in).
- Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.
Useful Resources
Recommended Outline
Before Class
Gather all the materials needed to run the scenario planning activity.
During Class
| 15 Minutes | Go through the cruise ship example. |
| 65 Minutes | The entire rest of the class is dedicated to the scenario planning activity. |
Lesson Content
Future of Cruising
Walk your students through this or another example.
Back in the olden days, people were very concerned about what the COVID-19 pandemic might mean for the cruise ship industry. The future was uncertain, the science was mysterious, and cruise lines needed to know what to do. It was time to plan some scenarios.
Step 1
Identify an issue of concern or some uncertain question. The example we'll be working through here is the future of cruise ship vacations. Draw out a two by two grid with two axes.
Instructions
| [n] Minutes | [Activity.] |
| [n] Minutes | [Activity.] |
Discussion Questions
[Question 1]
[Possible misconception that may need to be corrected and clarified.]
[Intended answer to the above question.]
[Question 2]
[Possible misconception that may need to be corrected and clarified.]
[Intended answer to the above question.]