14.1 Scenario Planning

With the future being uncertain, scenario planning offers a systematic way to imagine and plan for all possible contingencies. This helps one avoid putting all the eggs in one basket when making an important decision.

The Lesson in Context

We often face uncertainty when making future decisions. The scenario planning technique taught in this lesson provides a systematic way to consider a wider range of future possibilities, even ones that may be somewhat unlikely. This helps the planner plan for contingencies and avoid putting all their eggs in one basket.

Earlier Lessons

3.1 Probabilistic Reasoning

Future predictions always come with some level of uncertainty. Thus, one should be open to the possibility that the most likely future scenario does not happen. Scenario planning acknowledges this and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple possible futures.

8.1 Orders of Understanding

When determining what would be first, second, or higher order in our model, we often also need to think about the scope of what we're able to intervene on. In this regard, it's often helpful to take a step back and really think about what we're assuming will remain constant and what might change. In scenario planning, we take this one step further and intentionally try to be as creative as possible about what things that we might otherwise take for granted could change and what the possible consequences of those changes might be.
We usually want to put higher order factors on our scenario planning axes, to make sure we are considering the most important variables for possible futures.

Takeaways

After this lesson, students should

Avoid assuming the future will continue in one direction, and be ready to consider a variety of possible futures when planning.
Identify problems which could be informed by scenario planning.
Use scenario planning to inform reasoning about major decisions, including:
1. Identifying important & uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary.
2. Identifying the pros and cons of each quadrant of possibility.
3. Identifying how decisions made now might affect each quadrant.

Scenario Planning

A mode of problem solving which involves considering two important and uncertain dimensions along which the future might vary, imagining what each possible quadrant might look like, and considering how decisions made now will affect the likelihood and desirability of each quadrant.

Drivers

The drivers are the two axes used in a scenario planning plot. They should have the following features:

Drivers are orthogonal (independent of each other).
Drivers are uncertain (you don't know in advance what quadrant the future will be in).
Drivers are relevant to the question being addressed.

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